Preface

More complex projects require more extensive project management in order to  have a reasonable likelihood of success.  It is thus important that a project manager have a good estimate of project complexity from the outset in order to decide how many project management processes and how fulsome a process will be required.  For example, does this project call for a full Risk Management Plan, or is simply maintaining a current risk register enough?  The complexity estimator is intended to help answer these kinds of questions.

The estimator provides a relative, not an absolute, indication of project complexity.  A complexity estimate of 60, for example, only tells us that this project is more complex than another with a score of 30 but less complex than a third with a score of 80.  Which of the more fulsome subsidiary plans will be required and how much depth they should exhibit remain matters for the exercise of project management judgement.

Inputs

Decision Document or Business Case

Outputs

An estimate of  relative project complexity

Rationale

The discipline of project management is often criticized for expending too much effort planning and too little effort doing.  The planning is intended to make the doing of unfamiliar things less risky and less random.  However, project managers can get carried away, investing more time and effort in planning a relatively routine project than the project merits.  On the other hand, one does not want to get deeply into the doing of a fairly complex project and suddenly realize that too little effort was put into planning.  Thus, a quick estimate of project complexity at the outset can provide a very helpful indicator of how much planning effort is called for.  This estimator is designed to provide such an indication.

Procedures

1. Estimate the person-months of effort the project will require, < 12 = "1"; 12-21 = "2"; 21-30 = "3"; 30-39 = "4"; and > 48 = "5".  Record the appropriate number under "Value", apply the "Multiplier" and enter the product under "Total".

2. Enter the number of stakeholder groups, assess their internal coherence, and judge their relations with each other from colleagial (1) to hostile (5).  Record the appropriate number under "Value", apply the "Multiplier" and enter the product under "Total".

3. Assess scope and quality standards on two relative scales from well defined (1) to fluid (5) entering your assessment in the light grey box.  Record the appropriate numbers under "Value", apply the "Multiplier" and enter the product under "Total".

4. Record the number of rigidly constrained knowledge areas under "Value", apply the "Multiplier" and enter the product under "Total."

5. Estimate the number of external suppliers the project will require and the interdependency of their deliverables and.  Record the appropriate numbers under "Value", apply the "Multiplier" and enter the product under "Total".

6. Assess project risk on the indicated relative scales for each of the identified factors and .  Record the appropriate numbers under "Value", apply the "Multiplier" and enter the product under "Total".

7. Assess the organization's project management maturity and the project team's experience on the indicated scales.  Record the appropriate numbers under "Value", apply the "Multiplier" and enter the product under "Total".

8. The sum of the "Total" column will indicate the project's relative complexity.